“7 Powers” by Hamilton Helmer is a book and framework that claims to predict the success of a business/product by identifying its powers (or lack thereof).

I’ve seen reports in 2024 that Apple Vision Pro is a flop, and its future is bleak. But none of these reports have used 7P to validate. I figured I’d take a stab: What powers does Apple have with Vision Pro today?

Scale Economies: Apple clearly has this power, which might make future versions more affordable due to production efficiencies. But until the market scales, this power remains dormant. Verdict: Draw.

Counter Positioning: Curiously, the release of Samsung’s headset may enable this power, either for or against Apple, by creating a contrast between two options. But today, there is no real CP. The closest might be “use Vision Pro as a Mac monitor instead of a physical LCD monitor.” Verdict: No

Switching Costs: For those already deep in the Apple ecosystem, the switching cost is relatively low, when you consider the sunk costs for other Apple products and services. But switching costs are high for those outside the ecosystem, which explains the lack of power. This power alone pretty much explains how the market has shaped up in 2024. Can Apple find a way to reduce switching costs in 2025? Hmm… Verdict: No

Network Economies: I don’t think ownership benefit grows as more people buy Vision Pro. The network would have to attain critical mass (think iTunes Store-level) to attract a consortium of content creators. Verdict: No

Process Power: The jury is out on this. Oddly, this is the first time where you can take process power literally. If Apple innovates some breakthrough in M-class or R-class silicon inside Vision Pro, this power might emerge. Same with a critical feature release in visionOS 3 (e.g. family sharing/multiple accounts). But today, the M2 chip is seen by some as a liability vs. cutting edge in terms of the Vision Pro’s perception. Verdict: No Today, Future TBD

Branding: Despite Apple’s brand positivity, I don’t think envy is the word most used when others are seen using Vision Pro. A societal stigma still exists. Verdict: No

Cornered Resource: This is the one power Apple can leverage. Not in physical terms (although in theory Apple could lock up the high-end optical display supply chain if it really wanted to), but in terms of owning the highest-quality consumer headset on the market. In addition, cornered with regard to tastemaking (e.g. glass interfaces) because competitors are copying Vision Pro’s ID and UI to sell their products. Verdict: Yes

So even though I am an avid Apple Vision Pro supporter and daily user (I’m typing this now on Vision Pro), objectively for the product to succeed, it must grow beyond Cornered Resource (the power, along with Branding and to a lesser extent Switching Costs, that attracted early adopters).

The closest powers in reach seem to be Process Power (which may have technical limits we’re not aware of) and a combination of Switching Costs (e.g. monthly lease of Vision Pro) and Counter Positioning (e.g. contrasting Vision Pro with Samsung’s future headset). Process Power seems to be the likely next power, based on existing reports about the next-gen revision (same form factor but upgraded chips/OS).

But as I’ve said in other things I’ve written about Apple, don’t underestimate its ability to play the long game with this product. If anyone has the money, resources and patience to develop another 7P power for Vision Pro, it’s Apple.