In a recent post by Ed Conway (Sky News economist) about the Panama Canal, its fascinating history, and Trump’s wild proposal to bring it back under U.S. control, he made a subtle yet profound observation about history—one that echoes themes from the Trisolarians’ story in the sci-fi ‘Three-Body Problem’.

His key insight was this:

Human history isn’t a stable era occasionally interrupted by chaos. It’s a chaotic era occasionally punctuated by stability.

This perspective is one that often eludes many comfortable people in the West, insulated from the turbulence that has defined much of human history.

‘RATIONAL’ RESPONSES

In our intellectualized, technological age, there’s a strong temptation to believe that, despite history’s succession of madcap plans and chaotic events, the future will somehow be more calculable, predictable, and orderly.

This is wishful thinking.

This mindset often leads to the adoption of a “safe” but ultimately ineffective posture—one akin to that of an accountant developing a spreadsheet.

This approach is not only doomed but also condemns those of us who adopt it to a life of perpetual frustration, as we struggle to reconcile our expectations with the deeply unpredictable nature of human beings.

As German military strategist Helmuth von Moltke famously observed in the 1800s: “No battle plan survives contact with the enemy.”

The truly rational reading of history—and the only effective posture for the future—is to accept that it’s chaos, all the way down. Like waves in a turbulent sea, the world will continue to churn. The key to survival, and even success, is not to resist or control the chaos but to learn to surf it.

HOW TO SURF THE FUTURE

The key skills required to become a good surfer are metaphorically transferable to navigating the future, offering a framework for thriving in uncertain and ever-changing conditions:

Paddling Technique: The foundation of surfing is learning how to move efficiently in the water. Similarly, navigating the future requires mastering the basics: spending time in the right environments, platforms, and networks, and processing reliable, accurate information about history and the present. This foundational knowledge and awareness prepare you for what’s ahead.

Recognising Wave Formation: Recognising when and how a new wave is forming is crucial—it could be the perfect opportunity to ride or a wave you need to avoid to stay afloat. This skill translates to “swimming to where the wave will be” by identifying emerging trends, technologies, or societal shifts. Knowing which developments to embrace and which to avoid can make all the difference.

Popping Up (Standing Up): Once you’ve positioned yourself for the wave, the next challenge is standing up. This stage represents getting involved in a new paradigm as it takes off. Whether documenting the rise of a trend (as many have done with AI) or launching a business to leverage the opportunity, standing up connects you to fellow “surfers” who are riding the same wave. Being part of this community can be invaluable—each technological wave has minted billionaires and thousands of millionaires. Proximity to successful people in these movements significantly boosts your own chances of success.

The Bottom Turn: This is where the ride begins. Descending and balancing on the wave represents actively participating in the trend. As long as you stay balanced, remain adaptable to challenges, and are ready to catch the next wave when the current one dissipates, you’ll thrive. This is the most fun and rewarding part of navigating the future.

Stay Vigilant: Complacency is the enemy. Waves can be interrupted by other waves, and new challenges or opportunities can emerge without warning. Always keep an eye on the horizon to anticipate what’s next.

So here you are, in the fluid chaos. You can see the next wave forming on the horizon.

Start paddling.

GSTK @mprinparr