Just spitballing, but I think the California fires may be the tipping point to push decentralized insurance more mainstream.

We know that many of the homes were left uninsured because of risk assessments by traditional (incumbent) insurance companies. We know that the blame can be placed on the state or the insurance companies for this recent shift. These fires are also impact disproportionately wealthy individuals, which are more likely to have understanding of crypto — at least in America.

Meanwhile, stablecoins are widely in place, and lots of 2025 predictions have this as the year they meaningfully compete with bank transfers and credit cards for U.S. transactions. They're already used significantly in other countries.

Prediction markets (namely Polymarket and Kalshi) both also exploded as a byproduct of the 2024 elections. People can speculate on anything from election results to whether the Palisades fire will be 100% contained by a specific date. The markets' systems are trusted to settle fairly, which is why there is so much liquidity.

Now look at all of these trends together.

Is it too far-fetched to think that the loss of faith in incumbent insurance companies paired with the growing adoption of stablecoins and prediction markets will pave the way for a decentralized, peer-to-peer insurance system to safeguard against future natural disasters?

---

Find more of my thoughts on Twitter (@ethanweii).